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THE SIX DEGREE
SCENARIO
You
may have heard people on hot, sunny days in May say something like
“Isn’t global warming fantastic?”
Or during in cold, rainy Augusts like the one we’ve just had:
“Where’s that global warming we were promised?”
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up of Nobel prize-winning
scientists, predicts a global temperature rise of somewhere between 1.8
and 6 degrees centigrade over the next 80 years – depending on how much
fossil fuel we use.
Maybe
6 degrees doesn’t sound too bad. Maybe England will feel a bit more like
Provence, Spain, maybe even north Africa.
The following scenario shows why we really
don’t want temperature rises of more than 2 degrees.
It was written by Mark Lynas, who studies historical records to examine
the potential effects of global temperature rises. His research is backed
up by experiments in South Africa’s Succulent Karoo desert.
None of this is inevitable. But it shows why we have to keep temperature
rises to below 2 degrees centigrade if we are to limit dangerous climate
change.
+1 degree. Deserts form across large parts of the US, turning huge tracts of
farmland to dust. The Gulf Stream
could switch off, creating
ice-age like conditions in northern Europe. Coral reefs around the
world are wiped out.
+2
degrees. Oceans become more and more acidic, affecting sea-life.
Europe
is plagued by heatwaves and
wildfires.
Greenland
melts and sea-levels rise,
threatening coastal cities. The polar bear and walrus become extinct.
+3
degrees.
Africa
becomes one big desert,
forcing millions of refugees into surrounding countries. A permanent El
Nino rages in the Pacific, causing weather chaos worldwide. Wildfires rage
across the Amazon, destroying swathes of forest and releasing yet more
carbon into the atmosphere. World food is running short and water
shortages threaten
India, Pakistan,
Australia
and Peru.
+4
degrees. Rising waters threaten the Nile Delta and Bangladesh, creating millions more
refugees. The West Antarctic ice sheet collapses, causing global sea
levels to rise by 5 metres.
Southern Europe
becomes like the
Sahara, with deserts spreading
throughout Spain
and Portugal
.
+5
degrees. The Earth is hotter than it’s been for 55 million years.
Deserts expand across Europe,
Asia
and America
and entire populations try
to move towards the poles. Most of the world is now uninhabitable.
+6
degrees. Seas release poisonous hydrogen sulphide. Huge firestorms
sweep the planet as methane fireballs ignite. Most of life on Earth has
been extinguished, and humanity’s survival is in question.
That’s
why climate change is an unprecedented global threat. And that’s why we
have to keep temperature rises to below the 2 degrees C danger threshold.
We are still in a position to act – internationally, nationally
and locally. But there is a real urgency and we need to begin making
significant cuts in carbon emissions now.
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